Modeling intra-seasonal heterogeneity in hourly advertising-response models: Do forecasts improve?

Citation data:

International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN: 0169-2070, Vol: 33, Issue: 1, Page: 90-101

Publication Year:
2017
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DOI:
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.06.005
Author(s):
Meltem Kiygi-Calli, Marcel Weverbergh, Philip Hans Franses
Publisher(s):
Elsevier BV
Tags:
Business, Management and Accounting
article description
We examine the situation in which hourly data are available for designing advertising-response models, whereas managerial decision-making can concern hourly, daily or weekly intervals. A key notion is that models for higher frequency data require the intra-seasonal heterogeneity to be addressed, while models for lower frequency data are much simpler. We use three large, actual real-life datasets to analyze the relevance of these additional efforts for managerial interpretation and for the out-of-sample forecast accuracy at various frequencies.

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