Modeling intra-seasonal heterogeneity in hourly advertising-response models: Do forecasts improve?

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International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN: 0169-2070, Vol: 33, Issue: 1, Page: 90-101

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Meltem Kiygi-Calli; Marcel Weverbergh; Philip Hans Franses
Elsevier BV
Business, Management and Accounting
article description
We examine the situation in which hourly data are available for designing advertising-response models, whereas managerial decision-making can concern hourly, daily or weekly intervals. A key notion is that models for higher frequency data require the intra-seasonal heterogeneity to be addressed, while models for lower frequency data are much simpler. We use three large, actual real-life datasets to analyze the relevance of these additional efforts for managerial interpretation and for the out-of-sample forecast accuracy at various frequencies.