Rational credences are private

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McCutcheon, Randall G.
preprint description
Anti-expertise, or self-defeating belief, leads to incoherent personal credences. Some philosophers think that anti-expertise is irrational but avoidable (probabilism), others think that some cases of anti-expertise are rational (anti-probabilism), and still others think that anti-expertise is irrational and unavoidable (nihilism about rationality). Taking as premises some standard assumptions about the Sleeping Beauty Problem, I prove that if Beauty maintains public credences then she is prone to anti-expertise unless she embraces optimism, i.e. denies that she will experience multiple awakenings if tails.