Scoring Imprecise Credences: A Mildly Immodest Proposal

Citation data:

Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, ISSN: 0031-8205, Vol: 93, Issue: 1, Page: 55-78

Publication Year:
2016
Usage 76
Downloads 61
Abstract Views 14
Full Text Views 1
Captures 1
Exports-Saves 1
Social Media 49
Shares, Likes & Comments 46
Tweets 3
Repository URL:
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/11989
DOI:
10.1111/phpr.12256
Author(s):
Mayo-Wilson, Conor, Wheeler, Gregory
Publisher(s):
Wiley-Blackwell
Tags:
Arts and Humanities
Most Recent Tweet View All Tweets
article description
Jim Joyce argues for two amendments to probabilism. The first is the doctrine that credences are rational, or not, in virtue of their accuracy or "closeness to the truth" (1998). The second is a shift from a numerically precise model of belief to an imprecise model represented by a set of probability functions (2010). We argue that both amendments cannot be satisfied simultaneously. To do so, we employ a (slightly generalized) impossibility theorem of Seidenfeld, Schervish, and Kadane (2012), who show that there is no strictly proper scoring rule for imprecise probabilities. The question then is what should give way. Joyce, who is well aware of this no-go result, thinks that a quantifiability constraint on epistemic accuracy should be relaxed to accommodate imprecision. We argue instead that another Joycean assumption— called strict immodesty—should be rejected, and we prove a representation theorem that characterizes all "mildly" immodest measures of inaccuracy.

This article has 0 Wikipedia mention.