How Explanation Guides Confirmation

Citation data:

Philosophy of Science, ISSN: 0031-8248, Vol: 84, Issue: 2, Page: 359-368

Publication Year:
2017
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Repository URL:
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/12755
DOI:
10.1086/690723
Author(s):
Nevin Climenhaga
Publisher(s):
University of Chicago Press
Tags:
Arts and Humanities
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article description
Where E is the proposition that [If H and O were true, H would explain O], William Roche and Elliot Sober have argued that P(H | O&E) 5 P(H | O). In this article I argue that not only is this equality not generally true, it is false in the very kinds of cases that Roche and Sober focus on, involving frequency data. In fact, in such cases O raises the probability of H only given that there is an explanatory connection between them.

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