Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation

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Philosophy of Science, ISSN: 0031-8248, Vol: 83, Issue: 5, Page: 1110-1121

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Thompson, Erica; Frigg, Roman; Helgeson, Casey
University of Chicago Press; Chicago University Press
Arts and Humanities
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article description
Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way. We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5 ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment should play a central role in the provision of local climate change projections intended to support decision-making.