Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

Publication Year:
2004
Usage 434
Downloads 434
Repository URL:
http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1998
Author(s):
Romeyn, Jan-Willem
conference paper description
This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent the theoretical structure underlying the scheme. This is followed by an example of a change of hypotheses. The paper then presents a general framework for hypotheses change, and proposes the minimization of the distance between hypotheses as a rationality criterion. Finally the paper discusses the import of this for Bayesian statistical inference.