Tajikistan: 'Revolutionary situation' or a Resilient state? EUCAM Policy Brief 12, 19 December 2009

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Anna. Matveeva
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Since 2008, after the period of relative growth and social stability, the situation in Tajikistan has been steadily deteriorating; thus leading to increased speculation that the country could emerge as a failing state. Given its proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the role it plays in the Northern Distribution Network, a line that funnels military supplies from Europe to NATO ISAF troops in Afghanistan, the ramifications of potential instability in Tajikistan would resonate beyond the country. The current brief assesses to what extent such danger is in fact real by outlining developments in the key areas of economy and security, and examining the regime’s coping capacity to deal with emerging challenges.