Recent and future developments in earthquake ground motion estimation

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Earth-Science Reviews, ISSN: 0012-8252, Vol: 160, Page: 203-219

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John Douglas; Benjamin Edwards
Elsevier BV
Earth and Planetary Sciences
review description
Seismic hazard analyses (SHA) are routinely carried out around the world to understand the hazard, and consequently the risk, posed by earthquake activity. Whether single scenario, deterministic analyses, or state-of-the art probabilistic approaches, considering all possible events, a founding pillar of SHA is the estimation of the ground-shaking field from potential future earthquakes. Early models accounted for simple observations, such that ground shaking from larger earthquakes is stronger and that ground motion tends to attenuate rapidly away from the earthquake source. The first ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) were, therefore, developed with as few as two principal predictor variables: magnitude and distance.