Assessing downscaling techniques for frequency analysis, total precipitation and rainy day estimation in CMIP6 simulations over hydrological years
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN: 1607-7938, Vol: 28, Issue: 9, Page: 1981-1997
2024
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- Mentions1
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Research Reports on Hydrology and Earth System Sciences from Federal University of Minas Gerais Provide New Insights (Assessing downscaling techniques for frequency analysis, total precipitation and rainy day estimation in CMIP6 simulations ...)
2024 MAY 17 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at NewsRx Science Daily -- A new study on hydrology and earth system sciences
Article Description
General circulation models generate climate simulations on grids with resolutions ranging from 50 to 600gkm. The resulting coarse spatial resolution of the model outcomes requires post-processing routines to ensure reliable climate information for practical studies, prompting the widespread application of downscaling techniques. However, assessing the effectiveness of multiple downscaling techniques is essential, as their accuracy varies depending on the objectives of the analysis and the characteristics of the case study. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the performance of downscaling the daily precipitation series in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH), Brazil, with the final scope of performing frequency analyses and estimating total precipitation and the number of rainy days per hydrological year at both annual and multiannual levels. To develop this study, 78 climate model simulations with a horizontal resolution of 100gkm, which participated in the SSP1-2.6 and/or SSP5-8.5 scenarios of CMIP6, are employed. The results highlight that adjusting the simulations from the general circulation models by the delta method, quantile mapping and regression trees produces accurate results for estimating the total precipitation and number of rainy days. Finally, it is noted that employing downscaled precipitation series through quantile mapping and regression trees also yields promising results in terms of the frequency analyses.
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