A First-Order Second-Moment Framework for Probabilistic Estimation of Vulnerability to Landslides

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Uzielli, Marco; Duzgun, S.; Vangelsten, B. V.
landslide; vulnerability; Landslide; Civil and Environmental Engineering; Engineering
article description
The object of the present paper, which synthesises a broader research effort by ICG (2006a), is the development of a probabilistic framework for the quantitative estimation of the vulnerability of the built environment to landslides. The method draws inspiration from an existing 3-dimensional qualitative framework proposed earlier by ICG (2005). As vulnerability is directly included in quantitative risk analysis (QRA), it would be beneficial to convert the conceptual framework to a quantitative perspective. It should be recognised that, in real investigations, the input parameters and the models used in vulnerability assessment are necessarily vague and imprecise, and are subjective to some degree. Thus, strong emphasis should be placed towards a consistent processing of uncertainty. A first-order second-moment (FOSM) framework, which is capable of addressing and processing uncertainties in input variables and models to provide estimates of the uncertainty in vulnerability, is proposed. Results of the proposed methodology may serve as a more rational basis for vulnerability input to QRA. The basic framework of the proposed procedure can be exported to risk analyses related to other natural hazards.