Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

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Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A; Pizzuto, James E; Moglen, Glenn A; Angermeier, Paul L; Hilderbrand, Robert H; Dettinger, Michael; Hayhoe, Katharine
multiple stressors; urbanization; fish assemblage; headwater stream; siltation; flow regime; temperature regime; urban stream syndrome; Earth Sciences
article description
Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.