An econometric study of tourist arrivals in Aruba and its implications

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Tourism Management, ISSN: 0261-5177, Vol: 26, Issue: 6, Page: 879-890

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Robertico R. Croes; Manuel Vanegas Sr.
Elsevier BV
Social Sciences; Business, Management and Accounting; modeling; dynamic; elasticity; policy formulation; small economy; UNITED-STATES; INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL; DEMAND; MODEL; DETERMINANTS; EXPENDITURE; BARBADOS; EUROPE; Environmental Studies; Hospitality; Leisure; Sport & Tourism; Management; Modeling; Dynamic; Elasticity; Policy formulation; Small economy; Modeling; Dynamic; Elasticity; Policy formulation; Small economy; Hospitality Administration and Management; Tourism and Travel
article description
The principal purpose of this study is to analyze econometric estimates in order to explain tourist arrivals to Aruba from the United States, The Netherlands and Venezuela. The study specified a dynamic econometric model for modeling short term as well as the long-term responses. It estimated both linear and log-linear functions, and it applied the Box–Cox statistical method to determine the appropriate functional form. The inclusion of Venezuela as a developing country permitted the comparison of the behavior of tourism demand in relatively rich and poor countries. The results indicated the extent to which cross-country behavior of demand differs with respect to changes in effective prices and exchange rates. This study can assist in the formulation of future macroeconomic policies as well as market and pricing strategies in a small or microstate economy.