Can information be locked up? Privately informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements
Chicago Quantitative Alliance Conference
2014
- 25Usage
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Example: if you select the 1-year option for an article published in 2019 and a metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019. If you select the 3-year option for the same article published in 2019 and the metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019, 2018 and 2017.
Citation Benchmarking is provided by Scopus and SciVal and is different from the metrics context provided by PlumX Metrics.
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- Usage25
- Abstract Views25
Conference Paper Description
U.S. government agencies routinely allow pre-release access to macroeconomic data to accredited news agencies under embargo agreements. Using high frequency data, we find evidence consistent with informed trading during news embargoes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) scheduled announcements. The E-mini S&P 500 futures' average abnormal order imbalance is statistically significant and in the direction of subsequent policy surprises. Our estimates of pre-release informed trades’ dollar profits range between $4.5 and $210.5 million when aggregated across all markets and FOMC’s surprise announcements that we examine. Notably, we find no evidence of informed trading immediately prior to FOMC’s news embargoes or during lockups ahead of nonfarm payroll, CPI, and GDP data releases.
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