Is Pakistan’s fertility transition stalling?

This study examines the question as to whether Pakistan’s fertility transition is stalling. The paper reviews the trajectories of fertility and its various determinants and compares Pakistan’s trends with those of India and Bangladesh. Countries in the South Asia region share features such as cultural similarities (e.g. the low status of women and son preference) and high poverty levels. However, while Bangladesh and India are near replacement fertility today with modern contraceptive prevalence rates well above 50 per cent, Pakistan still has one of the highest fertility and lowest contraceptive prevalence levels in Asia. Our main conclusion is that Pakistan’s fertility transition is close to stalling in mid-transition. The key causes of this stall are a high and unchanging desired family size, stalling demand for contraception and relatively low satisfaction of this demand. These are important obstacles to future decline in fertility.