A Parametric Regression of the Cost of Base Realignment Action (COBRA) Model

This study develops a parametric model that is capable of generating accurate estimates of the costs to close Air Force installations. The new model is based upon, but much simpler to use than, the Cost of Base Realignment Action (COBRA) model. COBRA is an economic cost analysis model that requires a minimum of 250 inputs and as many as 700 inputs. The new parametric model requires just 10 input variables and was developed using least squares multiple regression. Comparison of the new parametric model to COBRA indicates that it captures 91 percent of the variance in cost estimates generated by the detailed COBRA model. The 20-year Net Present Value (NPV) of actions to close an installation is the figure of merit used in the new model. The COBRA model and the new parametric model generate similar rank orderings of bases, when NPV is used as the ranking criterion. Use of the Spearman's Correlation Test shows a direct correlation between the rank orders for each model at significance level α << 0.01.The parametric model is recommended for use as a precursor to COBRA to narrow the number of contemplated closure installations to just those that require further, more detailed analysis and output.