Predicting stringent QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus conversions in contacts of tuberculosis patients

To assess associations between disease severity in index TB patients and QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) results in contacts, and predictors for QFT-Plus conversion in contacts over 6–12 months. TB patients (n = 295) and the contacts (n = 1051) were enrolled during 2018–2021 with QFT-Plus performed at baseline and months 6 and 12. A strong CD8 response was defined as TB2 interferon gamma (IFN-γ) response minus TB1 >0.6 IU/ml and stringent conversion as change from QFT-plus negative to high-positive QFT-Plus (TB1 or TB2 IFN-γ responses >0.7 IU/ml). Contacts with index TB patients with sputum smear >1+ was associated with positive QFT-Plus compared to those without (p < 0.001). Contacts with index TB patients with bilateral lung disease were more likely to have strong CD8 responses than those without (p = 0.038). QFT-Plus stringent conversion occurred in 9.7% of contacts over 6–12 months. A TB1 IFN-γ response ≥0.03 IU/ml combined with a TB2 ≥0.06 IU/ml was predictive of a 19-fold increased risk for QFT-Plus stringent conversion in contacts (odd ratio 19.565 [8.484–45.116], p < 0.001). Bacterial burden and bilateral lung disease of index TB patients were associated with positive QFT-Plus and strong CD8 responses in contacts. TB1 and TB2 IFN-γ responses were synergistically predictive of stringent conversion in contacts.