Forecasting Paratransit Services Demand – Review and Recommendations

Abstract Travel demand forecasting tools for Florida’s paratransit services are outdated, utilizing old national trip generation rate generalities and simple linear regression models. In its guidance for the development of mandated Transportation Disadvantaged Service Plans (TDSP), the Florida Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged (CTD) refers transit planners to the May 1993 “Methodology Guidelines for Forecasting TD Transportation Demand at the County Level” to develop forecasts of transportation disadvantaged populations. This report examines the current demand forecasting procedure, examines samples of other forecasting methods, and details critical factors that should be considered in addressing the development of a new paratransit demand forecasting model. The report concludes with the development of an updated paratransit service demand model and details its application. A dynamic model spreadsheet was developed which requires relatively simple and minimal data inputs by the end user.