Predicting Terrorism: Mission Possible

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Steinberg, Alan
terrorism; prediction; behavior; attitude; unpredictable; forecasting; Defense and Security Studies
article description
Part of what makes terrorism so powerful is its seemingly unpredictable and indiscriminate nature. However, terrorism is truly neither of those. This study examines the background of prediction; especially focusing on the prediction of behavior from the viewpoint of psychology, and then showing how it applies to the prediction of terrorism. Though the use of both psychology and mathematical methodologies, including formal modeling, methods forecasting terrorism are outlined and analyzed. This study concludes by identifying the best methodologies for predicting terrorism in the near seeable future and what future trends mean for predictive science in relation to terrorism behavior prediction.