BATE Curve in Assessment of Clinical Utility of Predictive Biomarkers

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Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Ma, Yunbei
Predictive biomarker; cutoff points; interaction; BATE curve; time-to-event outcome; varying-coefficient; Biostatistics
article description
In this paper, for time-to-event data, we propose a new statistical framework for casual inference in evaluating clinical utility of predictive biomarkers and in selecting an optimal treatment for a particular patient. This new casual framework is based on a new concept, called Biomarker Adjusted Treatment Effect (BATE) curve, which can be used to represent the clinical utility of a predictive biomarker and select an optimal treatment for one particular patient. We then propose semi-parametric methods for estimating the BATE curves of biomarkers and establish asymptotic results of the proposed estimators for the BATE curves. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate finite-sample properties of the proposed estimation methods. Finally, we illustrate the application of the proposed method in a real-world data set.