Extreme value analysis for gridded data

Publication Year:
2010
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Repository URL:
https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2010/all/154; https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2199&context=iemssconference
Author(s):
Sanabria, L. A.; Cechet, Robert
Tags:
wind hazard; natural disasters; extreme value distributions; monte carlo simulation; high-resolution climate models
artifact description
The Risk and Impact Analysis Group of Geoscience Australia has been developing models to assess the hazard and risk produced by a number of natural phenomena. This paper describes a model to assess severe wind hazard over a region rather than at a recording station. The model integrates three sub-models: a statistical model that calculates return periods for the event using extreme value distributions; a model to extract and process wind speeds from a high-resolution (regional) climate model; and a Monte Carlo simulation model to generate wind gust speeds from mean wind speeds. Large scale high resolution gridded data requires a fast, efficient way to calculate wind hazard. A computer-based algorithm to achieve this aim is presented in this paper. To illustrate the methodology, wind hazard calculation over the Australian island state of Tasmania will be presented.