Assessing hydrological response to change in climate: Statistical downscaling and hydrological modelling within the upper Nile

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Kigobe, M.; Van Griensven, Ann
climate change; statistical downscaling; hydrological sensitivity analysis
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The sensitivity of several water resource components to environmental change is crucial to water managers. Water resource sensitivity studies are therefore required to assess how hydrological regimes will respond to environmental change. As a first attempt in the Upper Nile, this study explores statistical techniques to downscale climate projections with particular emphasis on rainfall simulation for the Kyoga basin, using Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). Despite noticeable bias in predicting the historical climate, the study results reveal that a warmer climate will lead to a basin-wide increase in precipitation and subsequent increase in stream flows for the Mpologoma basin, within the upper Nile.