Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity.

Citation data:

Nature, ISSN: 1476-4687, Vol: 491, Issue: 7426, Page: 683-91

Publication Year:
2012
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Repository URL:
https://wesscholar.wesleyan.edu/eesfacpub/67
PMID:
23192145
DOI:
10.1038/nature11574
Author(s):
Rohling, E. J.; Sluijs, A.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Köhler, P.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; von der Heydt, A. S.; Beerling, D. J.; Berger, A.; Bijl, P. K.; Crucfix, M.; DeConto, R.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Fedorov, A.; Foster, G. L.; Ganopolski, A.; Hansen, J.; Hönisch, B.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Huber, M.; Huybers, P; Knutti, R.; Lea, D. W.; Lourens, L. J.; Lunt, D.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Medina-Elizalde, M.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Pagani, M.; Pälike, H.; Renssen, H.; Royer, Dana L.; Siddall, M.; Valdes, P.; Zachos, J. C.; Zeebe, R. E. Show More Hide
Publisher(s):
Springer Nature
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Multidisciplinary
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article description
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W(-1) m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO(2), which agrees with IPCC estimates.