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Equity Duration and Predictability

SSRN, ISSN: 1556-5068
2020
  • 5
    Citations
  • 2,605
    Usage
  • 27
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    5
    • Citation Indexes
      5
  • Usage
    2,605
    • Abstract Views
      2,097
    • Downloads
      508
  • Captures
    27
  • Ratings
    • Download Rank
      111,857

Article Description

One of the most puzzling findings in asset pricing is that expected returns dominate variation in the dividend-to-price ratio, leaving little room for dividend growth rates. Even more puzzling is that this dominance only emerged after 1945. We develop a present value model to argue that a general increase in equity duration can explain these findings. As cash flows to investors accrue further into the future, shocks to highly persistent expected returns become relatively more important than shocks to growth rates. We provide supportive empirical evidence from dividend strips, the time-series, and the cross-section of stocks.

Bibliographic Details

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