Forecasting of Influenza Activity and Associated Hospital Admission Burden and Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on 2019/20 Winter Season in Hong Kong
SSRN, ISSN: 1556-5068
2023
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Example: if you select the 1-year option for an article published in 2019 and a metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019. If you select the 3-year option for the same article published in 2019 and the metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019, 2018 and 2017.
Citation Benchmarking is provided by Scopus and SciVal and is different from the metrics context provided by PlumX Metrics.
Article Description
Background: Like other tropical and subtropical regions, influenza viruses can circulate year-round in Hong Kong. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decrease in influenza activity. The objective of this study was to forecast influenza activity during the year 2020 and assess the impact of COVID-19 public health social measures (PHSMs) on influenza activity and hospital admissions in Hong Kong. Methods: Using weekly surveillance data on influenza virus activity in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019, we developed a statistical modeling framework to forecast influenza virus activity and associated hospital admissions. We conducted short-term forecasts (1-4 weeks ahead) and medium-term forecasts (1-13 weeks ahead) for the year 2020, assuming no PHSMs were implemented against COVID-19. We estimated the reduction in transmissibility, peak magnitude, attack rates, and influenza-associated hospitalization rate resulting from these PHSMs. Findings: For short-term forecasts, mean ambient ozone concentration and school holidays were found to contribute to better prediction performance, while absolute humidity and ozone concentration improved the accuracy of medium-term forecasts. We observed a maximum reduction of 46·7% (95% CrI: 38·0% - 53·8%) in transmissibility, 75·4% (95% CI: 73·0% - 77·3%) in attack rate, 40·6% (95% CI: 17·2% - 53·7%) in peak magnitude, and 58·7% (95% CI: 55·2% - 61·6%) in cumulative influenza-associated hospitalizations during the winter-spring period of the 2019/2020 season in Hong Kong. Interpretation: The implementation of PHSMs to control COVID-19 had a substantial impact on influenza transmission and associated burden in Hong Kong. Incorporating information on factors influencing influenza transmission improved the accuracy of our predictions. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong Declaration of Interest: BJC received honoraria from AstraZeneca, Fosun Pharma, GSK, Haleon, Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer, Roche, and Sanofi. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.
Bibliographic Details
Elsevier BV
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