Auge minero-energético, enfermedad holandesa e informalidad en Colombia: un análisis a partir de un modelo DSGE

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instname:Universidad del Rosario

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Ballesteros Ruiz, Carlos Andrés; Magíster en Economía
Facultad de Economía; Universidad del Rosario
Modelos DSGE; Enfermedad holandesa; Informalidad; Formalidad; Desempleo; 330; Economía; Desarrollo económico; Industria minera; Capital; Política fiscal; DSGE models; Dutch disease; Informality; Formality; Unemployment
thesis / dissertation description
The present paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic model, which assesses the macroeconomic effects that result from simulating a positive shock to the stochastic component of the mining-energy sector. This shock generates a generalized increase of wages in the formal sector and a rise in tax revenues, expanding total consumption of the household members. These facts increase the price of non-tradable goods relative to the tradable goods price, decreasing real exchange rate (appreciation) and bringing a displacement of productive resources, from the tradable (manufacturing) sector to the non-tradable sector, followed by an increase in GDP and formal job gains through the whole economy. This situation makes the formal sector to absorb workers from the informal sector through the non-tradable formal subsector, which causes informal GDP to go down. As a consequence, in the net consumption falls for informal workers, which leads some members of the household not to offer their labor force in the informal sector but, instead, they prefer to keep unemployed. Therefore, the final result on the labor market is a decrease in the number of informal workers, from which a part are in the formal sector and the rest are unemployed.