Evaluación del desempeño pronóstico de dos puntajes de predicción de mortalidad a siete días en pacientes adultos oncológicos críticamente enfermos admitidos a una unidad de cuidados intensivos en Bogotá

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instname:Universidad del Rosario

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Rojas Ruiz, Ingrid Tatiana; Magíster en Epidemiología
Facultad de medicina; Universidad del Rosario
Puntaje pronóstico; Cuidado crítico; Cáncer; Mortandad; QZ 206; Pronosctic score; Critical care; Cancer; Mortality; Mortalidad hospitalaria -- predicciones; Neoplasias -- análisis
thesis / dissertation description
Introduction Scoring systems for prediction have been developed to measure the severity of the disease and the prognosis of patients in the intensive care unit. These measures are useful for clinical decision-making, standardization of research and comparing the quality of care to critically ill patients. Materials and methods Study of analytical observational cohort who reviewed the medical records of 283 cancer patients admitted to the intensive care unit during January 2014 to January 2016 and which were calculated the probability of mortality APACHE IV and MPM II, logistic regression was performed with the predictor variables that were derived each of the models is their original studies and calibration is determined, discrimination and Akaike information criteria AIC and BIC Bayesian were calculated. Results In assessing prognostic performance APACHE IV scores showed greater capacity for discrimination (AUC = 0.95) compared with MPM II (AUC = 0.78), the two models showed adequate calibration Hosmer and Lemeshow statistic for APACHE IV (p = 0.39) and MPM II (p = 0.99) Conclusions APACHE IV has a good performance in predicting mortality of critically ill patients, including cancer patients. Therefore it is a useful tool for clinicians in their daily work by allowing you to distinguish patients with high probability of mortality.