Comparison of Calculations of the Financial Impact of Fellowship Training by Data Source

Background: Previous comparisons of potential lifetime earnings between general pediatricians and pediatric subspecialties have demonstrated that many subspecialties have lower potential lifetime earnings than general pediatrics. However, those studies selectively used specific data sources for different portions of analyses. Objective: To assess the presence and magnitude of differences in earning forecasts using different authoritative data sources. Methods: This quality improvement study analyzed compensation data for 14 pediatric subspecialties and general pediatrics from the Association of Administrators in Academic Pediatrics (AAAP), Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), and Medical Group Management Association (MGMA) for the 2021 to 2022 academic year. Main Outcomes and Measures: The potential lifetime compensation was calculated using the net present value (NPV), which accounts both for compensation throughout training (residency and fellowship) and compensation after graduation. The potential lifetime compensation for the subspecialties and general pediatrics was compared separately for each data source. Results: This study included data from 3 sources about 14 subspecialties and general pediatrics. Depending on the data source, the magnitude of the difference in lifetime earnings between subspecialties and general pediatrics varied greatly. For all sources, there was a greater difference in lifetime earnings between higher- and lower-paid subspecialties compared with each other relative to general pediatrics. For the AAAP, the subspecialty with the greatest lifetime NPV is neonatal medicine, and the subspecialty with the least lifetime NPV is endocrinology, with a difference of $2787539. For the AAMC, cardiology has the greatest lifetime NPV and endocrinology the least, with a difference of $3557492. For the MGMA, neonatal medicine has the greatest lifetime NPV and adolescent medicine the least, with a difference of $4210477. Additionally, there is a notable difference in lifetime earnings in private vs academic practice. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the difference in lifetime compensation between many pediatric subspecialties and general pediatrics is not as large as previously reported. Also, greater differences exist when comparing private practice vs academic medicine and between higher- and lower-paid subspecialties..