The relationship between thermal regime alteration and spawning delay of the four major Chinese carps in the Yangtze river below the Three Gorges Dam

Large dams often alter flow and thermal regimes downstream, resulting in fish spawning delays and larval abundance declines. Accurate prediction of the delayed spawning period under changed thermal regime is critical for selecting a correct timing to modify dam operation and to release the environmental flow needed to enhance fish spawning. We used correlation analysis to investigate the relationship between thermal regime alteration and spawning delay of the four major Chinese carps (FMCC) below the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River, China, using a 13-year ecological data series (1997-2009). Eighteen variables were defined to quantify thermal regime and related to two variables representing spawning timing. Our results demonstrate that the start of FMCC spawning has been delayed from early May to middle June since the Three Gorges Dam initiated operation in 2003. Water temperature declines of 2°C-4°C in March, April and May (a critical period for gonad development) were the principal reason for the observed spawning delay. The variable most associated with spawning timing was the arrival date of the cumulative temperature needed for gonad development from stages IV to V (D), which describes the long-term impacts of the timing, magnitude and duration of thermal regime upon gonad development. Only the cumulative temperature for gonad development and the minimum temperature for FMCC spawning (18°C) are both satisfied, the occurrence of suitable flow conditions, that is, flow increase or flash flood, would produce a successful spawning event. Consequently, we suggest that the experimental flow increase process of the Three Gorges Reservoir aimed at enhancing FMCC spawning should initiate after 15 June when the requisite thermal regime can be met.