Future Transitions to a Renewable Stationary Energy Sector: Implications of the Future Ecological Footprint and Land Use

We investigate the development of stationary energy policy for the national and sub-national ecological footprint. Three carbon emission mitigation scenarios relating to the electricity sector (two different fuel mix scenarios and the rate of technological uptake) are explored. We find that the effectiveness of sub-national policy varies with global uncertainty. To be robust, policy to reduce carbon emissions from the stationary energy sector must be successful irrespective of which future eventuates and/or must be highly adaptable and responsive to different futures. We investigate the impact of emission reduction policy on other parts of the ecological footprint—energy land. Many low carbon energy production methods require large areas of land, and this exacerbates current land use competition, particularly with respect to agricultural land. We find that holistic policy development will need to identify land uses which can operate synergistically with land required for renewable energy to mitigate ecological footprint expansion as renewable energy increases. Our case study using Australia and four of its states provides a framework applicable elsewhere in the world to increase the resilience of the energy sector and agriculture.