Pretreatment metabolic tumour volume in stage IIIA/B non-small-cell lung cancer uncovers differences in effectiveness of definitive radiochemotherapy schedules: analysis of the ESPATUE randomized phase 3 trial

Purpose: According to the ACRIN 6668/RTOG 0235 trial, pretreatment metabolic tumour volume (MTV) as detected by F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT is a prognostic factor in patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after definitive radiochemotherapy (RCT). To validate the prognostic value of MTV in patients with stage III NSCLC after RCT, we analysed mature survival data from the German phase III trial ESPATUE. Methods: This analysis included patients who were staged by PET/CT and who were enrolled in the ESPATUE trial, a randomized study comparing definitive RCT (arm A) with surgery (arm B) after induction chemotherapy and RCT in patients with resectable stage IIIA/IIIB NSCLC. Patients refusing surgery and those with nonresectable disease were scheduled to receive definitive RCT. MTV was measured using a fixed threshold-based approach and a model-based iterative volume thresholding approach. Data were analysed using proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier survival functions. Results: MTV as a continuous variable did not reveal differences in survival between the 117 patients scheduled to receive definitive RCT and all 169 enrolled patients who underwent pretreatment PET/CT (p > 0.5). Five-year survival rates were 33% (95% CI 17–49%) in patients scheduled for definitive RCT with a high MTV (>95.4 ml) and 32% (95% CI: 22–42%) in those with a low MTV. The hazard ratio for survival was 0.997 (95% CI 0.973–1.022) per 10-ml increase in MTV and the slope was significantly shallower than that in the ACRIN 6668/RTOG 0235 trial (random effects model, p = 0.002). There were no differences in MTV size distributions between the ACRIN and ESPATUE trials (p = 0.97). Conclusion: Patients with stage III NSCLC and a large MTV in whom definitive RCT had a particularly good survival in the ESPATUE trial. Treatment individualization according to MTV is not supported by this study. The ESPATUE and ACRIN trials differed by the use of cisplatin-containing induction chemotherapy and an intensified radiotherapy regimen that were particularly effective in patients with large MTV disease.