Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand

Current impact assessment methods do not have the capability to simulate the impacts of volcanic eruptions in both high-resolution spatial detail and as they vary through time under the economic structures of post-hazard event scenarios. We couple a land use change model and an economic model that can simulate post-hazard event economies and the impacts that occur over a 4-year period following a hypothetical eruption for the Auckland region of New Zealand. The eruption scenario includes pyroclastic surges and lava flows that directly impact an urban area of 9600 ha. The results illustrate that because of the cascading impacts on infrastructure networks, disruption to businesses and staff and connections within the economy, land use changes outside of the areas directly impacted by physical volcanic hazards are significant relative to the impacts on land use in areas directly affected by the physical hazards. The results also demonstrate the capability to simulate the dynamic recovery pathway of the economy after the eruption has occurred and that an integrated land use and economic model has the potential to serve as a basis for simulating and evaluating alternative redevelopment strategies for urban areas following volcanic eruptions.