Predictive value of texture analysis on lumbar MRI in patients with chronic low back pain

Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine whether MRI texture analysis could predict the prognosis of patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted on 100 patients with non-specific chronic low back pain, who underwent a conventional MRI, followed by rehabilitation treatment, and revisited after 6 months. Sociodemographic variables, numeric pain scale (NPS) value, and the degree of disability as measured by the Roland–Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), were collected. The MRI analysis included segmentation of regions of interest (vertebral endplates and intervertebral disks from L3–L4 to L5–S1, paravertebral musculature at the L4–L5 space) to extract texture variables (PyRadiomics software). The classification random forest algorithm was applied to identify individuals who would improve less than 30% in the NPS or would score more than 4 in the RMDQ at the end of the follow-up. Sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the ROC curve were calculated. Results: The final series included 94 patients. The predictive model for classifying patients whose pain did not improve by 30% or more offered a sensitivity of 0.86, specificity 0.57, and area under the ROC curve 0.71. The predictive model for classifying patients with a RMDQ score 4 or more offered a sensitivity of 0.83, specificity of 0.20, and area under the ROC curve of 0.52. Conclusion: The texture analysis of lumbar MRI could help identify patients who are more likely to improve their non-specific chronic low back pain through rehabilitation programs, allowing a personalized therapeutic plan to be established.