Hydrological extremes and climatic controls on streamflow in Jhelum basin, NW Himalaya

The present study intends to assess the climatic controls on the streamflow and its impacts on the changing form of hydrological extremes in the Jhelum basin. The study entails robust statistical analysis of the observed hydroclimatic data (1980–2016) using the standard procedures of trend and abrupt change point detection, flood frequency analysis (FFA), and streamflow drought index (SDI). The coupled impact of rising temperatures (0.024 °C/year) and diminishing precipitation (− 5.71 mm/year) is yielding substantial decreases in the streamflow of the Jhelum basin. The other manifestations of changing climatic regimes are the increasing trends in the spring season (March-May) streamflow and the concurrence of abrupt change points in the streamflow data with climatic variables. The climate change signals are well evident over the hydrological extremes, reflected in an enhanced occurrence of droughts through the latter half of the examined period. Moreover, the flood frequency estimates show that the magnitude of the peak discharges about different return periods has increased significantly during 1986–2016 compared to 1956–1985 estimates. The magnitude of 100-year recurrence interval flood has increased by 10.54–79.58% during 1986–2016. The current study calls for the inclusive restructuring of water management practices to offset the impacts of changing hydrological extremes in the basin.