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Ordinary Cokriging applied to generate intensity-duration-frequency equations for Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN: 1434-4483, Vol: 155, Issue: 3, Page: 2365-2378
2024
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Article Description

For natural resource management and conservation, understanding and quantifying the spatiotemporal behavior of rainfall is of paramount importance. Therefore, the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) equation has been one of the most used tools in the water resource engineering for this purpose. IDF equations are adjusted with observed rainfall data and, consequently, the lack of these data forces decision-makers to use equations that were not adjusted for the local of interest; so, making this information available is crucial for rainfall intensity-associated goals. Thus, this study aimed to model the spatial variability of IDF equation coefficients and enable their spatial interpolation to the Rio Grande do Sul State—Brazil, by Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Ordinary Cokriging (OCK) methods. IDF equations were adjusted to 258 locations with annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) data, recorded from 1912 to 2018. The methodology consisted of: evaluating the temporal trend of the AMDR series and adjusting the IDF equations by using trend-free series; an exploratory analysis of the IDF equation coefficients and the secondary variables (AMDR, AMDR and distance from the coast (Dist)); modeling the spatial variability structure of primary and secondary variables; and performing spatial interpolation with in SGeMS. The estimated IDF equation coefficients were assessed with cross-validation. OCK using AMDR as a secondary variable performed better in estimating IDF equation coefficients among the interpolators, since it presented the smallest errors. The good performance of this interpolator enabled generating IDF equation coefficient maps for the Rio Grande do Sul State, at the spatial resolution of 5 km.

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