Bayesian active learning for parameter calibration of landslide run-out models

Landslide run-out modeling is a powerful model-based decision support tool for landslide hazard assessment and mitigation. Most landslide run-out models contain parameters that cannot be directly measured but rely on back-analysis of past landslide events. As field data on past landslide events come with a certain measurement error, the community developed probabilistic calibration techniques. However, probabilistic parameter calibration of landslide run-out models is often hindered by high computational costs resulting from the long run time of a single simulation and the large number of required model runs. To address this computational challenge, this work proposes an efficient probabilistic parameter calibration method by integrating landslide run-out modeling, Bayesian inference, Gaussian process emulation, and active learning. Here, we present an extensive synthetic case study. The results show that our new method can reduce the number of necessary simulation runs from thousands to a few hundreds owing to Gaussian process emulation and active learning. It is therefore expected to advance the current practice of parameter calibration of landslide run-out models.