An assessment of changes and variability of climate impact on cotton production yield over Southern Punjab, Pakistan

As the country’s primary cash crop and the source of cattle feed, fiber, and oil, cotton is regarded as Pakistan’s economic backbone, contributing 0.8% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 4.1% of the agricultural value-added amount. South Punjab, Pakistan has remained a significant cotton belt of the country, however, in recent years, the region has witnessed a significant decline in annual cotton production. Cotton production in this region is threatened by several issues-including a decline in area under cultivation, increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall patterns, whitefly and other pest attacks due to changing climate. The objective of this study is to explore the possible impact of climatic variables on the decrease of cotton production in South Punjab, Pakistan over the years 2004 through 2020. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and cotton crop yield in the study area. The analysis indicated a weak positive effect of rainfall on cotton production during the flowering and picking stages in the Jhang district, as well as during the vegetative stage in the Vehari and Pakpattan districts. During the picking stage and germination stage in Rahim Yar Khan, minimum temperature has a significantly weak negative effect on cotton production respectively. This study aims to provide a framework for policy, incorporating certain valuable cotton varieties, suitable for the climate of the study area, that will help increase the country’s GDP by increasing cotton crop production in this region.