Response of erosion sensitivity to land use change in populated areas: a case study of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

Soil erosion represents a significant global environmental challenge. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, as a prototypical region in China with heightened soil erosion sensitivity, face the dual challenges of a dense population and an immediate need for comprehensive ecological management. Therefore, this study aims to elucidate the impact of land use change on erosion sensitivity and explore human activities interfering with this process. By identifying the dynamic evolution of potential erosion risk from 2000 to 2020, the drivers of soil erosion were clarified by combining Geodetector probes and scenario simulations to quantify the response of erosion sensitivity to land use change. The results show that the risk of erosion in the study area is high but shows a combined downward trend, mainly due to benign changes in vegetation cover and positive human interventions. Vegetation cover characteristics emerge as the principal factor influencing erosion sensitivity during land use, with its interaction with land use intensity factors being particularly noteworthy. The sensitivity to soil erosion rises with land-use patterns shifting towards human-intensive urban sprawl. Studies indicate a 6.4% reduction in the vegetation cover coefficient corresponds to a 3.7% increase in the potential soil erosion risk index. Identifying the dominant factors in the potential risk of soil erosion and the reasons behind them will contribute to soil and water conservation and risk prevention in areas of population concentration. It is of great significance to control planning and sustainable development.