Predicting land use changes and ecosystem service impacts with CA-Markov and machine learning techniques

Urban ecosystem services play a vital role in increasing resilience against environmental challenges, providing human well-being benefits, and conserving biodiversity within rapidly urbanizing areas. This study investigates land use and land cover (LULC) changes across three districts in Telangana -Medchal-Malkajgiri, Warangal, and Ranga Reddy–over the past several decades, specifically their effects on ecosystem service values (ESV). Utilizing the Benefit Transfer Methodology, we assessed the effects of urban expansion on ESV by measuring significant increases in built-up areas that have replaced natural landscapes. This transformation has resulted in decreased capacity to provide essential ecosystem services such as climate regulation, water quality regulation and biodiversitÅy conservation. Water bodies emerged as key contributors to ecosystem services provision—emphasizing their significance for urban resilience. Medchal-Malkajgiri, Warangal and Ranga Reddy districts in Telangana are experiencing rapid urbanization as a result of Hyderabad’s expansion and rapid infrastructure development. This transformation of agricultural lands into urbanized spaces threatens ecosystem services such as water resources and biodiversity while jeopardizing long-term environmental sustainability—this study evaluates these effects and offers essential insight for planning sustainable urban environments. Our results reveal a responsive relationship between ecosystem services (ESV) and land use change (LULC), such that changes to land use directly impact ecosystem service availability and quality. Our findings offer actionable insights to policymakers by emphasizing the necessity for urban planning strategies which prioritize ecosystem preservation alongside development to foster sustainable urban growth.