Ex-post evaluation of scenarios: the case of nanotechnology societal impacts
Quality and Quantity, ISSN: 1573-7845, Vol: 50, Issue: 3, Page: 1349-1365
2016
- 5Citations
- 11Captures
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Article Description
Scenario development is one of the popular methods of futures studies. There has been a lot of attention paid to different methods of scenario writing in theoretical literature; but what is important is to evaluate the scenarios which has not been a matter of comprehensive study heretofore. In this paper, we have carried out a comprehensive study in this regard. Accordingly, evaluation has been divided into three categories: ex-ante evaluation, mid-term evaluation and ex-post evaluation. Ex-ante evaluation is carried out when the scenario is generating; mid-term evaluation is carried out when the scenarios are transferring; and ex-post evaluation is being done after the transfer of scenarios. It should be noted that main purpose for ex-ante evaluation is considered “effectiveness”, for mid-term evaluation “relevance”, and for ex-post evaluation “the impact”. The outstanding part of this paper is the ex-post evaluation of scenarios for societal impact of nanotechnology, (which is carried out in accordance with a former paper) whose corresponding National Iranian Nanotechnology Initiative (NINI) time began approximately 10 years ago.
Bibliographic Details
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84928621071&origin=inward; http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x; http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x; http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x; http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x.pdf; http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x/fulltext.html; https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11135-015-0209-x
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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