Does technology advancement reduce aggregate carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from 66 countries with panel threshold regression model

The influence of technology advancement on carbon dioxide (CO) emissions is complex and controversial, yet existing literature ignores the level of economic development in regard to its influential effect. With the panel threshold regression model, this research investigates the marginal and non-linear impacts of technology advancement on CO emissions along with the changes of economic development and presents the heterogeneity between different countries. The results are as follows: First, technology advancement and CO emissions have a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship, which is significantly affected by different levels of economic development. When economic development exceeds a certain threshold, the impact turns from positive to negative. Second, the impact varies remarkably among different countries. We provide evidence for inverted U-shaped and N-shaped correlations in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and high-income countries (non-OECD), respectively. Although technology advancement always promotes CO emissions in middle- and low-income countries, its marginal effect is decreasing. This study not only indicates the dynamic impacts of technology advancement on CO emissions in different countries, but also contributes to policymakers’ understanding of the “common but differentiated responsibilities” involved in mitigating CO emissions.