The effect of China’s leading officials’ accountability audit of natural resources policy on provincial agricultural carbon intensities: the mediating role of technological progress

China is one of the largest agricultural countries in the world. In the context of China’s efforts to achieve dual carbon goals (carbon peak and carbon neutral), the need for carbon emissions reductions in the agricultural sector cannot be ignored. This study collected 2007 to 2018 data from 30 Chinese provinces and used a difference in differences (DID) model to investigate the relationships between China’s leading officials’ accountability audit of natural resources policy (LOAANR), agricultural technological progress, and agricultural carbon emissions intensities (CEI). A common trend test, placebo test, PSM-DID, and other test methods were used to verify the reliability of the results. The results show that (1) compared with the non-pilot areas, the policy implementation could significantly reduce CEI; (2) the LOAANR was able to stimulate patented technological progress (ATI) and mechanical technological progress (AMT), but different types of technological progress had different mediation effect sizes; and (3) the policy effects shows obvious regional heterogeneity, manifesting as west > east > central; and the policy effects were more obvious in the non-major grain-producing areas, but had no inhibition effects on the CEI in the major grain-producing areas; compared with low intensity market-based environmental regulation (MER) regions, high-intensity MER regions have stronger LOAANR emission reduction effects. Based on the study findings, policy suggestions are given to reduce agricultural carbon emissions and promote higher quality agricultural development.