How to Deal with the Trade-off between Development and Decarbonization for Rural Logistics in China? Evidence from Jiangsu

Rural logistics faces a dilemma between development and high carbon emissions in China. We assess the tension between rural logistics development and carbon emissions from the perspective of policy guidance by modeling a rural logistics system using Jiangsu’s data. We simulate the development trend of Jiangsu rural logistics under carbon abatement policies from 2021–2030, with a focus on promoting its development while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions at a minimal cost. The findings show that rural logistics will move towards high carbon emissions without a carbon abatement policy, while the huge tax pressure of carbon reduction policies reduces the profitability of rural logistics, leading to a trade-off between development and decarbonization. From the perspective of implementation timing and manner of carbon abatement policies implementation, we propose a pathway for securing the profitability of rural logistics and resolving the trade-off.