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Scenario analysis of the effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the chum salmon population-enhancement system

Fisheries Science, ISSN: 1444-2906, Vol: 81, Issue: 5, Page: 803-814
2015
  • 5
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 6
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    5
    • Citation Indexes
      4
    • Policy Citations
      1
      • Policy Citation
        1
  • Captures
    6

Article Description

The Great East Japan Earthquake may have resulted in increased mortality of artificially propagated chum salmon fry (2010 year class) from Iwate Prefecture (CSI), both in the hatchery and after release. Individuals from the 2010 year class will return in 2014–2015. To evaluate the potential for future issues associated with the effects of the earthquake, we simulated CSI population dynamics using a model that incorporated stratified earthquake-influenced survival rates λl (l = 0.00−1.00 at intervals of 0.25) under various scenarios. Under laissez-faire scenarios (median exploitation rate EMed) under low post-release survival rate SLow and all λl, the median number of hatchery-released fry Ht′ did not reach the target H* in 2014 and 2015. The probability Pj,t of not meeting the targets was 0.56−1.00 (2014) and 0.79−1.00 (2015). Meanwhile, with simulation of a low exploitation rate, SLow, and a higher λl (0.50), the Pj,t in 2014 and 2015 was 0.00−0.17 and 0.21−0.72, respectively. Under SMed and SHigh, Ht′ reached H* at λl (>0.50) regardless of El, and the cumulative catch varied primarily with Sl. Our results suggest that simulations can provide a method of predicting potential issues and can offer insight into strategies to minimize future problems.

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