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A Modified Framework for Reliability-Based Risk Analysis of Linear Concrete Circular Tunnel

Iranian Journal of Science and Technology - Transactions of Civil Engineering, ISSN: 2364-1843, Vol: 48, Issue: 5, Page: 3467-3482
2024
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Article Description

Damage investigation and economic loss assessment in seismic events estimated by risk analysis are serious concerns of safety managers. There are two types of risk analyses: conventional performance-based seismic analysis employing conditional probability, and reliability-based risk analysis implementing the unified reliability analysis. Although reliability-based risk analysis requires further development in certain areas, it gives distinct advantages compared to conventional risk analysis. This study proposes a new modification of the reliability-based risk analysis to simulate the Poisson point process in which the unified reliability analysis is reformulated based on the fast integration analysis. This reformulation eliminates the need for the simulation process of the sampling-based approach by employing the point estimation procedure, as the result yields a limited number of component reliability problems that can be addressed through the application of numerical nonlinear programming optimization. Another part of this study is allocated to define different parts of the unified reliability analysis such as modeling the ground motion by employing an artificial earthquake generation, etc., and these new tools aim to enhance the functionality of the reliability-based risk analysis. The performance and robustness of the proposed unified reliability analysis are completely investigated through a comprehensive numerical example, involving a linear dynamic analysis of a finite-element model of a concrete circular tunnel. The results demonstrate the successive performance of the proposed framework in achieving accurate results and a significant decrease in computational cost.

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