Ultrasound-based Nomogram for Predicting the Pathological Nodal Negativity of Unilateral Clinical N1a Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in Adolescents and Young Adults

To develop and validate a nomogram incorporating clinical and ultrasound (US) characteristics for predicting the pathological nodal negativity of unilateral clinically N1a (cN1a) papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) among adolescents and young adults. From December 2016 to August 2021, 278 patients aged ≤ 30 years from two medical centers were enrolled and randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. After performing univariate and multivariate analyses, a nomogram combining all independent predictive factors was constructed and applied to the validation cohort. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that unilateral cN1a PTC in young patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, T1 stage, no intra-tumoral microcalcification, and tumors located in the upper third of the thyroid gland was more likely to be free of central lymph node metastases. The nomogram revealed good calibration and discrimination in both cohorts, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.764 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.684–0.843) and 0.728 (95% CI: 0.602–0.853) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The clinical application of the nomogram was further confirmed using decision curve analysis. This US-based nomogram may assist the assessment of central cervical lymph nodes in young patients with unilateral cN1a PTC, enabling improved risk stratification and optimal treatment management in clinical practice.