Analyzing individual drivers of global changes promotes inaccurate long-term policies in deforestation hotspots: The case of Gran Chaco

In the context of the global climate and biodiversity crises, forecasting the effectiveness of Protected Areas (PAs) and forest management to conserve biodiversity in the long-term is a high priority, especially in threatened environments. By combining distribution models and conservation planning protocols, we analyzed the effect of global climate and agriculture-linked activities in the long-term conservation opportunities of one most threatened deforestation hotspots: the South American Gran Chaco. We showed that assessing the effects of each driver of global change individually, promotes inaccurate long-term policies in deforestation hotspots. Our future scenarios indicated a low impact of climate change on the species distributions when it was analyzed individually. However, its effects were strongly exacerbated when both drivers of threat were combined in the same analyses, strongly diminishing conservation opportunities in the region: more than 50% of the remaining species' distribution and hotspot areas could be lost in the near future. In this dramatic context, we identified important opportunities to improve the level of long-term protection by increasing at least 5.6% the protection coverage and placing PAs strategically. It is imperative policymakers promote policies to generate a long-term improvement of conservation areas that are resilient to both threats as soon as possible for these threatened environments.