Do geohazards inhibit urban expansion at the regional scale? Evidence from a counterfactual analysis in Southwest China

The inhibiting effect of geohazards on urban expansion has been demonstrated at the site or local scale. At the regional scale, the more ambiguous relationship between urban development and geohazards is attributed to the complexity and adaptability of cities. Therefore, this study focussed on Southwest China because it has the largest number and greatest frequency of geohazards. The cloud model was applied to evaluate the geohazard susceptibility of the research area. Next, a novel econometric model—the endogenous switching regression model (ESRM)—was introduced to conduct a counterfactual analysis. The empirical results passed the robustness test and showed that the proportion of high-susceptibility areas in the study area was 30.4 %. Importantly, the change from low susceptibility to high susceptibility will reduce the expansion intensity by 1.62 %. In contrast, the expansion intensity will increase by 25.9 % if a high-susceptibility area turns into a low-susceptibility area. Nevertheless, geohazards still inhibit urban expansion at the regional scale. Finally, based on the concept of urban resilience, proposals are made to minimize the risk of hazard exposure through various adaptive paths in the post-pandemic era, thereby creating a resilient city that is better suited for urban development.