Does urban shrinkage equate to a decline in development levels? – Urban development measurement and influencing factors analysis

Under the theoretical framework of urban sustainable development, combined with the development planning and industrial policies being implemented in China, this study constructed a multi-dimensional comprehensive urban development model with Chinese characteristics using Northeast China as the verification object. Then, it extensively analyzed the development status and explored driving factors in the background of urban shrinkage. The trend of expansion–shrinkage–expansion was observed in the urban development degree ( ∆k ) of these provinces and cities as the state steered economic and urban development mode reform and industrial transformation. The results verify that urban shrinkage is a dynamic process and that new economic vitality and impetus for economic and industrial restructuring will enhance urban development. Based on exploratory spatial data analysis, the study analyzed global and local correlations of the degree of urban development in Northeast China and analyzed the factors and spatial effects of urban development. In 2011–2019, the integrated development of urban clusters led to an urban agglomeration effect, resulting in an increase in the global spatial correlation among cities in Northeast China. In addition, the results of the local correlation analysis show that a single economic and social development pattern of resource-based cities puts them in a difficult position to allocate industries and run comprehensive urban functions. In Northeast China, Liaoning Province underwent more profound changes and has been the pacesetter for “re-expansion in shrinkage.” Through the case study, suggestions aimed to contribute to the exploration of development model of shrinking cities and achieving high-quality development were proposed.