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Can long-run dynamic optimal strategies outperform fixed-mix portfolios? Evidence from multiple data sets

European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN: 0377-2217, Vol: 236, Issue: 1, Page: 160-176
2014
  • 10
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 31
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    10
    • Citation Indexes
      10
  • Captures
    31

Article Description

Using five alternative data sets and a range of specifications concerning the underlying linear predictability models, we study whether long-run dynamic optimizing portfolio strategies may actually outperform simpler benchmarks in out-of-sample tests. The dynamic portfolio problems are solved using a combination of dynamic programming and Monte Carlo methods. The benchmarks are represented by two typical fixed mix strategies: the celebrated equally-weighted portfolio and a myopic, Markowitz-style strategy that fails to account for any predictability in asset returns. Within a framework in which the investor maximizes expected HARA (constant relative risk aversion) utility in a frictionless market, our key finding is that there are enormous difference in optimal long-horizon (in-sample) weights between the mean–variance benchmark and the optimal dynamic weights. In out-of-sample comparisons, there is however no clear-cut, systematic, evidence that long-horizon dynamic strategies outperform naively diversified portfolios.

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