Climate change scenario simulations for urban flood resilience with system dynamics approach: A case study of smart city shanghai in Yangtze River Delta region

With the rapid advancement of technology, cities are increasingly integrating smart designs to enhance their urban resilience, particularly against natural disasters such as floods. This study employs an integrated approach to simulate the social, economic, and environmental conditions under various climate change scenarios to strengthen urban flood resilience in smart cities. The CMIP5 BCC-CSM 1-1 model, using the RCP4.5 scenario, is utilized to project future climate changes. Shanghai, a highly developed smart city in the Yangtze River Delta, was selected as the case study. Five scenarios are examined through a system dynamics model spanning from 2015 to 2030, encompassing current continuation, economic priority, social priority, natural priority, and coordinated development scenarios. The model is built upon a conceptual framework known as PSR-SENCE (Pressure-State-Response model and Social-Economic-Natural Complex Ecosystem theory). The findings reveal a consistent improvement in resilience within the response dimension facilitated by modern technology. Notably, the coordinated development scenario emerges as the most effective in bolstering urban flood resilience, surpassing scenarios prioritizing economic, social, or natural development individually. Smart cities like Shanghai must prioritize technological innovation alongside enhancing organizational governance to address these challenges effectively.